Scouting Report
Noel Acciari holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Acciari wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Acciari 53.3% vs Novak 45.6% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 77.4%
Defensive zone
Acciari 72.0%
Neutral zone
Novak 55.2%
Result
Noel Acciari favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Acciari
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Acciari
Novak
Last 5: Acciari 2-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
1
0
Acciari
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
1
3
Acciari
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Acciari
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (532)
43.8% (384)
+10.7%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
58.8% (17)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
48.8% (86)
100.0% (1)
-51.2%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +51.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Acciari is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (412).
Acciari shoots right. Novak is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Home / Away
Acciari
Novak
Home
56.2% (281)
46.5% (202)
Away
51.9% (345)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Acciari
Novak
P1
53.4%
49.2%
P2
57.1%
44.2%
P3
51.4%
40.0%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Acciari
38.0%▼
46.0%
53.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2023 | 2 | 16:56 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 2 | 11:41 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 1 | 12:14 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 26, 2023 | 1 | 12:05 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 15:34 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |