Scouting Report
Oliver Kapanen holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kapanen on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kapanen wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kapanen 47.8% vs Kelly 41.6% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 71.6%
Defensive zone
Kapanen 57.3%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 60.7%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 62.2%
62.2%
37.8%
Kapanen
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kapanen
Kelly
Last 5: Kapanen 3-2 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
0
Kapanen
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Kapanen
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kapanen
2
1
Kapanen
Kelly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kapanen
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (514)
36.3% (157)
+11.2%
Power Play
55.0% (40)
0.0% (1)
+55.0%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (38)
45.5% (11)
-6.0%
On power play, Kapanen has a +55.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Kapanen is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (438).
Kapanen shoots right. Kelly is 34.9% vs right-shot opponents (63).
Home / Away
Kapanen
Kelly
Home
47.9% (307)
35.9% (78)
Away
47.0% (285)
37.4% (91)
By Period
Kapanen
Kelly
P1
42.7%
34.3%
P2
51.4%
36.0%
P3
48.4%
40.4%
Final 5 min
45.5%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.5%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
36.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 05:45 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 03:35 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:57 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |