Scouting Report
Oliver Kapanen holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kapanen on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kapanen wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kapanen 47.5% vs Kelly 41.8% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 80.8%
Defensive zone
Kelly 63.8%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 58.8%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Kapanen
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kapanen
Kelly
Last 5: Kapanen 3-2 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
0
Kapanen
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Kapanen
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kapanen
2
1
Kapanen
Kelly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kapanen
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (559)
41.9% (756)
+5.3%
Power Play
51.0% (51)
0.0% (3)
+51.0%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (38)
37.2% (172)
+2.3%
On power play, Kapanen has a +51.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Kapanen is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Kapanen shoots right. Kelly is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Kapanen
Kelly
Home
47.1% (340)
42.5% (475)
Away
47.1% (308)
39.3% (456)
By Period
Kapanen
Kelly
P1
42.7%
42.4%
P2
50.2%
44.7%
P3
48.2%
35.7%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.0%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.1%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 05:45 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 03:35 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:57 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |