Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kapanen on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kapanen wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kapanen 47.8% vs Aho 50.0% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 72.6%
Defensive zone
Kapanen 51.1%
Neutral zone
Aho 59.6%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
Kapanen
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Kapanen
Aho
Last 5: Kapanen 4-1 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
2
1
Kapanen
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
0
Kapanen
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
0
Kapanen
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kapanen
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (514)
49.9% (851)
-2.4%
Power Play
55.0% (40)
53.5% (144)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (38)
43.3% (60)
-3.8%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Kapanen is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (438).
Kapanen shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Kapanen
Aho
Home
47.9% (307)
53.2% (554)
Away
47.0% (285)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Kapanen
Aho
P1
42.7%
49.1%
P2
51.4%
50.8%
P3
48.4%
49.7%
OT
25.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
45.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.5%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 18:48 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 17:33 | Defensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 13:52 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:11 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:54 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |