Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Moore 48.9% vs Aho 50.0% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Moore 54.3%
Defensive zone
Moore 53.4%
Neutral zone
Moore 56.1%
Result
Oliver Moore favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Moore
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Moore
Aho
Last 6: Moore 2-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Moore
2
0
Moore
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Moore
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Moore
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Moore
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (187)
49.9% (851)
+0.4%
Power Play
33.3% (15)
53.5% (144)
-20.2%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
43.3% (60)
-43.3%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +43.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Moore is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (141).
Moore shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Moore
Aho
Home
52.3% (132)
53.2% (554)
Away
41.1% (73)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Moore
Aho
P1
44.3%
49.1%
P2
54.2%
50.8%
P3
46.5%
49.7%
OT
60.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Moore
38.0%▼
48.5%
48.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | OT | 00:51 | Offensive | Oliver Moore |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:58 | Offensive | Oliver Moore |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 04:35 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 09:51 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 05:20 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |