Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Moore 48.2% vs Aho 51.2% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Moore 54.7%
Defensive zone
Moore 56.5%
Neutral zone
Moore 61.7%
Result
Oliver Moore favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Moore
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Moore
Aho
Last 6: Moore 2-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Moore
2
0
Moore
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Moore
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Moore
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Moore
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (212)
50.1% (6,619)
-1.0%
Power Play
31.3% (16)
58.9% (1,310)
-27.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
46.3% (464)
-21.3%
On power play, Aho has a +27.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Moore is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (162).
Moore shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Moore
Aho
Home
50.4% (141)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
42.9% (91)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Moore
Aho
P1
44.7%
51.1%
P2
49.3%
52.0%
P3
48.1%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
51.8%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Moore
38.0%▼
48.5%
47.4%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | OT | 00:51 | Offensive | Oliver Moore |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:58 | Offensive | Oliver Moore |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 04:35 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 09:51 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 05:20 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |