Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Kelly wins 37.7% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 41.6% vs Novak 43.4% (-5.1%)
Offensive zone
Novak 71.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 65.6%
Neutral zone
Kelly 52.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Kelly
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
36.3% (157)
41.4% (379)
-5.1%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
46.9% (32)
-46.9%
On power play, Novak has a +46.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kelly is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (106).
Kelly shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Kelly
Novak
Home
35.9% (78)
42.6% (195)
Away
37.4% (91)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Kelly
Novak
P1
34.3%
42.4%
P2
36.0%
39.2%
P3
40.4%
44.7%
Final 5 min
37.8%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
36.7%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%