Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Kelly wins 41.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 41.8% vs Novak 43.3% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 87.3%
Defensive zone
Kelly 75.2%
Neutral zone
Novak 51.2%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Kelly
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kelly
Novak
Last 6: Kelly 4-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Kelly
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (756)
42.1% (1,539)
-0.2%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
51.9% (133)
-51.9%
Penalty Kill
37.2% (172)
50.0% (2)
-12.8%
On power play, Novak has a +51.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kelly is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Kelly shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Kelly
Novak
Home
42.5% (475)
45.3% (814)
Away
39.3% (456)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Kelly
Novak
P1
42.4%
43.9%
P2
44.7%
42.8%
P3
35.7%
41.7%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
35.8%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:08 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:31 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 06:23 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |