Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Kelly wins 38.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 41.4% vs Johnston 49.1% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 82.0%
Defensive zone
Kelly 82.3%
Neutral zone
Kelly 79.6%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 82.1%
82.1%
17.9%
Kelly
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Kelly
Johnston
Last 8: Kelly 1-7 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
5
Kelly
Johnston
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Kelly
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (722)
49.3% (2,024)
-7.7%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
52.7% (165)
-52.7%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (170)
44.6% (233)
-8.1%
On power play, Johnston has a +52.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Kelly is 38.8% vs right-shot opponents (294).
Kelly shoots left. Johnston is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Kelly
Johnston
Home
42.2% (457)
49.4% (1,211)
Away
38.6% (438)
48.7% (1,211)
By Period
Kelly
Johnston
P1
41.5%
49.7%
P2
44.9%
48.5%
P3
35.1%
48.9%
OT
50.0%
48.0%
Final 5 min
34.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
22.0%▼
37.0%
40.4%
Johnston
44.0%▼
47.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 08:37 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 03:27 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:50 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:51 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 01:37 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |