Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Kelly wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 41.8% vs Johnston 49.1% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 79.0%
Defensive zone
Kelly 80.0%
Neutral zone
Kelly 75.7%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 79.2%
79.2%
20.8%
Kelly
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Kelly
Johnston
Last 8: Kelly 1-7 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
5
Kelly
Johnston
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Kelly
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (756)
49.3% (2,189)
-7.4%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
52.6% (173)
-52.6%
Penalty Kill
37.2% (172)
44.7% (237)
-7.5%
On power play, Johnston has a +52.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Kelly is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Kelly shoots left. Johnston is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,967).
Home / Away
Kelly
Johnston
Home
42.5% (475)
49.2% (1,319)
Away
39.3% (456)
49.0% (1,280)
By Period
Kelly
Johnston
P1
42.4%
50.1%
P2
44.7%
48.3%
P3
35.7%
48.8%
OT
50.0%
51.6%
Final 5 min
35.8%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 08:37 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 03:27 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:50 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:51 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 01:37 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |