Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bergeron on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Bergeron wins 63.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bergeron 60.5% vs Hertl 54.5% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Bergeron leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Bergeron 56.7%
Defensive zone
Bergeron 87.3%
Neutral zone
Bergeron 77.5%
Result
Patrice Bergeron favored at 79.6%
79.6%
20.4%
Bergeron
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Bergeron
Hertl
Last 10: Bergeron 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bergeron
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
5
2
Bergeron
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Bergeron
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bergeron
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (1,109)
54.1% (1,117)
+8.4%
Power Play
62.2% (352)
59.8% (296)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
53.5% (245)
34.4% (32)
+19.1%
On penalty kill, Bergeron has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bergeron is 63.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,178).
Bergeron shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Bergeron
Hertl
Home
61.9% (917)
54.3% (709)
Away
60.2% (789)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Bergeron
Hertl
P1
60.8%
51.6%
P2
60.3%
53.6%
P3
63.0%
58.6%
OT
51.5%
45.5%
Final 5 min
58.7%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
61.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 2 | 18:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 2 | 15:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 1 | 15:36 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:05 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 17:57 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 09:49 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 02:42 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 00:53 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |