Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Brown 56.8% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 73.8%
Defensive zone
Brown 53.8%
Neutral zone
Brown 50.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
Stepan
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Stepan
Brown
Last 6: Stepan 2-4 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Stepan
Brown
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
0
2
Stepan
Brown
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
61.3% (336)
-6.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
50.0% (4)
-50.0%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
45.9% (74)
+18.8%
On power play, Brown has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. Brown is 60.5% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Home / Away
Stepan
Brown
Home
54.5% (222)
61.1% (180)
Away
57.2% (222)
56.4% (234)
By Period
Stepan
Brown
P1
57.5%
57.5%
P2
54.7%
58.5%
P3
55.9%
59.2%
Final 5 min
57.5%
61.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 06:47 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 1 | 01:11 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |