Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Brown wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 54.6% vs Gourde 48.2% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 81.9%
Defensive zone
Brown 50.7%
Neutral zone
Gourde 72.1%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 64.2%
35.8%
64.2%
Brown
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Brown
Gourde
Last 9: Brown 2-7 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
2
Brown
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Brown
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
3
Brown
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (726)
48.4% (4,954)
+8.1%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
57.4% (376)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (136)
39.9% (554)
+7.9%
On even strength, Brown has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Brown is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Brown shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,937).
Home / Away
Brown
Gourde
Home
57.4% (364)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
53.6% (506)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Brown
Gourde
P1
51.4%
49.9%
P2
54.6%
47.4%
P3
58.8%
47.5%
OT
50.0%
37.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
55.2%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 04:56 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 17:03 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 10:37 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 07:40 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:14 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 16, 2023 | 2 | 05:34 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 16:51 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 3 | 10:28 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |