Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Stastny 54.4% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 63.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 63.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 64.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
McDavid
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McDavid
Stastny
Last 6: McDavid 2-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
2
McDavid
Stastny
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
McDavid
Stastny
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (633)
53.6% (859)
-6.7%
Power Play
69.2% (26)
59.9% (202)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (11)
55.1% (78)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. McDavid is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (450).
McDavid shoots left. Stastny is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (727).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stastny
Home
49.9% (353)
56.9% (596)
Away
45.4% (317)
52.5% (543)
By Period
McDavid
Stastny
P1
46.6%
53.9%
P2
50.9%
56.2%
P3
45.9%
54.4%
OT
0.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
50.4%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.8%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2020 | 3 | 13:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 26, 2020 | 3 | 09:59 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 26, 2020 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 26, 2020 | 2 | 11:36 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 26, 2020 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 26, 2020 | 1 | 18:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |