Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 49.6% vs Stastny 54.0% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 11-7 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 66.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 76.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 61.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 68.5%
68.5%
31.5%
McDavid
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
11
(18 meetings)
7
11
McDavid
Stastny
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
6
McDavid
Stastny
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
4
McDavid
Stastny
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
1
McDavid
Stastny
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (621)
52.5% (432)
-3.4%
Power Play
78.6% (14)
60.4% (154)
+18.2%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
66.7% (6)
-66.7%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. McDavid is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (456).
McDavid shoots left. Stastny is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stastny
Home
56.1% (330)
58.3% (307)
Away
42.5% (308)
50.9% (285)
By Period
McDavid
Stastny
P1
49.2%
57.4%
P2
47.4%
51.7%
P3
53.0%
54.5%
Final 5 min
51.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.5%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2021 | 3 | 08:10 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 2 | 05:12 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 19:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 06:45 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 12:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 09:35 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 04:09 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 04:03 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 03:53 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 14:24 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 02:24 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 3 | 13:32 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 3 | 11:16 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 3 | 07:27 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 1 | 07:48 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 12:42 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |