Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +23.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 30.9% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 38.2% vs Stastny 55.6% (-23.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 90.0%
Defensive zone
Stastny 54.5%
Neutral zone
Smith 71.1%
Result
Craig Smith favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Smith
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Smith
Stastny
Last 5: Smith 1-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
0
Smith
Stastny
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
3
Smith
Stastny
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Smith
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
33.9% (177)
56.5% (967)
-22.6%
Power Play
30.8% (52)
58.4% (125)
-27.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
50.8% (128)
-50.8%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +50.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Smith is 30.9% vs left-shot opponents (181).
Smith shoots right. Stastny is 62.2% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Home / Away
Smith
Stastny
Home
37.0% (119)
56.8% (590)
Away
28.8% (111)
55.4% (630)
By Period
Smith
Stastny
P1
37.5%
59.7%
P2
32.5%
54.8%
P3
27.3%
53.8%
OT
100.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
29.5%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
33.0%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2016 | 3 | 12:08 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 27, 2016 | 1 | 15:55 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 29, 2015 | 3 | 06:52 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 29, 2015 | 3 | 05:09 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 29, 2015 | 2 | 01:26 | Offensive | Craig Smith |