Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.7% vs Stastny 54.4% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 66.7%
Defensive zone
Stepan 81.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 71.7%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 77.0%
77.0%
23.0%
Stepan
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Stepan
Stastny
Last 10: Stepan 3-7 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
2
Stepan
Stastny
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
7
Stepan
Stastny
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (877)
53.6% (859)
-6.3%
Power Play
54.4% (103)
59.9% (202)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (217)
55.1% (78)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Stepan is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Stepan shoots right. Stastny is 57.0% vs right-shot opponents (412).
Home / Away
Stepan
Stastny
Home
50.4% (560)
56.9% (596)
Away
45.1% (637)
52.5% (543)
By Period
Stepan
Stastny
P1
47.4%
53.9%
P2
47.0%
56.2%
P3
48.1%
54.4%
OT
50.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
48.7%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.5%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2019 | 3 | 17:13 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 3 | 16:58 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 01:54 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 06:31 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 04:10 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 00:48 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 2 | 08:24 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 1 | 11:07 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 1 | 10:55 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 1 | 00:29 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 13:09 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 13:03 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 06:38 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |