Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Skinner wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Skinner 45.2% vs Stastny 55.1% (-13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Skinner 65.5%
Defensive zone
Skinner 58.9%
Neutral zone
Skinner 61.2%
Result
Jeff Skinner favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Skinner
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Skinner
Stastny
Last 8: Skinner 3-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Skinner
2
1
Skinner
Stastny
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
4
Skinner
Stastny
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Skinner
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (149)
55.0% (1,136)
-13.4%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
57.5% (200)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
53.1% (64)
-13.1%
On even strength, Stastny has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Skinner is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (113).
Skinner shoots left. Stastny is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Home / Away
Skinner
Stastny
Home
46.8% (77)
58.5% (744)
Away
37.8% (82)
52.1% (680)
By Period
Skinner
Stastny
P1
45.6%
57.9%
P2
40.4%
54.9%
P3
40.4%
53.0%
OT
33.3%
72.0%
Final 5 min
41.2%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Skinner
44.0%▬
44.5%
42.1%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2012 | 3 | 06:19 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 10, 2012 | 2 | 05:47 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 10, 2012 | 2 | 02:52 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 10, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 10, 2012 | 1 | 19:37 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 10, 2012 | 1 | 02:40 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 10, 2012 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Jeff Skinner |
| Feb 10, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Skinner |