Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 51.2% vs Stastny 55.1% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 55.1%
Defensive zone
Stastny 84.0%
Neutral zone
Stastny 76.6%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 65.2%
34.8%
65.2%
Tavares
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Tavares
Stastny
Last 5: Tavares 4-1 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Stastny
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Stastny
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (1,232)
55.0% (1,136)
-3.5%
Power Play
51.1% (305)
57.5% (200)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (30)
53.1% (64)
-16.4%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Tavares is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,084).
Tavares shoots left. Stastny is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stastny
Home
52.8% (781)
58.5% (744)
Away
49.9% (804)
52.1% (680)
By Period
Tavares
Stastny
P1
52.8%
57.9%
P2
52.1%
54.9%
P3
48.7%
53.0%
OT
63.6%
72.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2011 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 18:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 09:35 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 03:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |