Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 54.7%). Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 56.9% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.7% vs Stastny 54.0% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 53.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 57.5%
Neutral zone
Stastny 51.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Tavares
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Tavares
Stastny
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
3
Tavares
Stastny
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Stastny
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Stastny
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (692)
52.5% (432)
+2.0%
Power Play
59.1% (149)
60.4% (154)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
66.7% (6)
-12.2%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Tavares is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Tavares shoots left. Stastny is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stastny
Home
57.9% (404)
58.3% (307)
Away
52.9% (448)
50.9% (285)
By Period
Tavares
Stastny
P1
54.2%
57.4%
P2
55.1%
51.7%
P3
56.4%
54.5%
OT
57.1%
80.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2021 | 2 | 06:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| May 14, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 16:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 1 | 09:33 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 02:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 12:59 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 12:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 1 | 11:15 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 06:53 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 11:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 11:38 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 06:13 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |