Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Toews wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 56.8% vs Stastny 54.4% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 70.2%
Defensive zone
Stastny 69.8%
Neutral zone
Stastny 68.1%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 69.8%
30.2%
69.8%
Toews
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Toews
Stastny
Last 10: Toews 3-7 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
4
Toews
Stastny
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
3
Toews
Stastny
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Toews
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (1,014)
53.6% (859)
+2.3%
Power Play
62.8% (301)
59.9% (202)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (179)
55.1% (78)
+0.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Toews is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (903).
Toews shoots left. Stastny is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (727).
Home / Away
Toews
Stastny
Home
56.6% (709)
56.9% (596)
Away
58.0% (785)
52.5% (543)
By Period
Toews
Stastny
P1
60.4%
53.9%
P2
57.6%
56.2%
P3
54.3%
54.4%
OT
59.4%
53.8%
Final 5 min
58.5%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 06:45 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 17:56 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 17:35 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 05:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 3 | 05:22 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 16:15 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 10:11 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 2 | 14:53 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |