Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 55.1%). Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 32 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Stastny 55.1% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 58-35 in 93 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 68.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 53.3%
Neutral zone
Stastny 59.8%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Staal
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
58
(93 meetings)
35
58
Staal
Stastny
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
10
22
Staal
Stastny
32 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
11
17
Staal
Stastny
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
14
19
Staal
Stastny
33 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
54.6% (10,616)
+1.3%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
59.1% (1,994)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
52.9% (1,119)
-4.9%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
Staal
Stastny
Home
56.4% (9,663)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Staal
Stastny
P1
55.2%
56.3%
P2
55.9%
55.4%
P3
54.9%
53.5%
OT
56.2%
62.9%
Final 5 min
56.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 18:42 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 18:07 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 19:14 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 8, 2020 | OT | 02:25 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 19:01 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 18:50 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 16:29 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 13:58 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 11:47 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 05:49 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 1 | 10:33 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 31, 2020 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 31, 2020 | 3 | 10:53 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 31, 2020 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 31, 2020 | 2 | 15:48 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 31, 2020 | 2 | 11:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 30, 2017 | 3 | 19:47 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |