Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +13.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barzal wins 41.1% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.9% vs Stastny 54.4% (-13.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 81.4%
Defensive zone
Stastny 67.0%
Neutral zone
Stastny 71.9%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 70.4%
29.6%
70.4%
Barzal
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Barzal
Stastny
Last 7: Barzal 4-3 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Stastny
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
3
1
Barzal
Stastny
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Barzal
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (514)
53.6% (859)
-12.9%
Power Play
58.3% (24)
59.9% (202)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
55.1% (78)
-5.1%
On even strength, Stastny has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Barzal is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (392).
Barzal shoots right. Stastny is 57.0% vs right-shot opponents (412).
Home / Away
Barzal
Stastny
Home
43.0% (279)
56.9% (596)
Away
40.1% (269)
52.5% (543)
By Period
Barzal
Stastny
P1
41.2%
53.9%
P2
46.4%
56.2%
P3
37.1%
54.4%
OT
50.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
48.3%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
41.6%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 00:21 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 19:25 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 12:52 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 19:34 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 1 | 01:19 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |