Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 58.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs Thomas 51.6% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 57.4%
Defensive zone
Stastny 57.0%
Neutral zone
Stastny 55.2%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Stastny
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stastny
Thomas
Last 5: Stastny 3-2 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
0
Stastny
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
0
Stastny
Thomas
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Stastny
Thomas
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
51.1% (5,274)
+3.5%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
55.9% (909)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
50.1% (677)
+2.8%
On even strength, Stastny has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Stastny shoots left. Thomas is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,828).
Home / Away
Stastny
Thomas
Home
55.9% (7,073)
50.9% (3,457)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
52.3% (3,403)
By Period
Stastny
Thomas
P1
56.3%
50.7%
P2
55.4%
52.9%
P3
53.5%
50.8%
OT
62.9%
59.4%
Final 5 min
55.7%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Thomas
36.0%▼
50.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 16:26 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 02:31 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 1 | 08:13 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 2 | 16:14 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |