Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Stastny wins 57.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 54.4% vs Carpenter 44.1% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Carpenter leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Carpenter 78.1%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 92.0%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 80.6%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 86.8%
13.2%
86.8%
Stastny
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Stastny
Carpenter
Last 10: Stastny 2-8 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
0
Stastny
Carpenter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
7
Stastny
Carpenter
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
3
Stastny
Carpenter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (859)
46.2% (474)
+7.4%
Power Play
59.9% (202)
28.6% (7)
+31.3%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (78)
32.6% (129)
+22.5%
On power play, Stastny has a +31.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Stastny is 57.0% vs right-shot opponents (412).
Stastny shoots left. Carpenter is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Stastny
Carpenter
Home
56.9% (596)
46.5% (303)
Away
52.5% (543)
39.7% (307)
By Period
Stastny
Carpenter
P1
53.9%
44.2%
P2
56.2%
40.4%
P3
54.4%
44.2%
OT
53.8%
57.1%
Final 5 min
52.8%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.8%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 01:07 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 3 | 08:01 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 2 | 00:09 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 05:31 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 03:07 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 22, 2019 | OT | 04:56 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 3 | 14:11 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 2 | 11:37 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 1 | 08:12 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |