Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stastny wins 58.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs Carrick 52.1% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 90.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 65.3%
Neutral zone
Stastny 65.4%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Stastny
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Stastny
Carrick
Last 10: Stastny 7-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
4
0
Stastny
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Stastny
Carrick
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
52.1% (2,513)
+2.5%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
61.3% (75)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
50.7% (430)
+2.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Stastny shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Stastny
Carrick
Home
55.9% (7,073)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Stastny
Carrick
P1
56.3%
51.8%
P2
55.4%
52.2%
P3
53.5%
52.4%
Final 5 min
55.7%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 08:01 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 18:01 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 09:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 04:40 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 2 | 08:26 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 1 | 11:03 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |