Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 58.4% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs Reinhart 43.3% (+12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 92.2%
Defensive zone
Stastny 92.7%
Neutral zone
Stastny 92.6%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 92.5%
92.5%
7.5%
Stastny
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Stastny
Reinhart
Last 9: Stastny 7-2 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
0
Stastny
Reinhart
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
0
Stastny
Reinhart
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Stastny
Reinhart
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
42.5% (2,173)
+12.1%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
46.5% (525)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
41.3% (339)
+11.6%
On power play, Stastny has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Stastny shoots left. Reinhart is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,283).
Home / Away
Stastny
Reinhart
Home
55.9% (7,073)
44.9% (1,528)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
41.2% (1,509)
By Period
Stastny
Reinhart
P1
56.3%
44.5%
P2
55.4%
40.5%
P3
53.5%
44.5%
OT
62.9%
43.5%
Final 5 min
55.7%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 15, 2022 | 2 | 01:16 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 1 | 13:30 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 15, 2016 | 3 | 10:39 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 15, 2016 | 3 | 00:44 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 15, 2016 | 1 | 17:57 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 15, 2016 | 1 | 09:13 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 15, 2016 | 1 | 06:08 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 15, 2016 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |