Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 22 meetings). Stastny wins 58.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs Stamkos 51.0% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 35-17 in 52 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 61.4%
Defensive zone
Stastny 81.0%
Neutral zone
Stastny 82.2%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 73.3%
73.3%
26.7%
Stastny
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
17
(52 meetings)
35
17
Stastny
Stamkos
Last 10: Stastny 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
14
7
Stastny
Stamkos
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
16
6
Stastny
Stamkos
22 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
5
4
Stastny
Stamkos
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
50.4% (9,799)
+4.2%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
55.1% (1,725)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
49.7% (825)
+3.2%
On even strength, Stastny has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Stastny shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Stastny
Stamkos
Home
55.9% (7,073)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Stastny
Stamkos
P1
56.3%
49.1%
P2
55.4%
52.7%
P3
53.5%
50.9%
OT
62.9%
54.3%
Final 5 min
55.7%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 3 | 10:41 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 10:57 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 00:34 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 05:19 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 10:20 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 09:16 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 11:58 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 13:13 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 01:26 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 15:16 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 03:06 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 2 | 16:04 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |