Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 59.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 56.3% vs Stamkos 53.4% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 55.2%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 56.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 55.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Stastny
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Stastny
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
0
Stastny
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Stastny
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (412)
55.3% (628)
+2.2%
Power Play
60.0% (65)
55.1% (216)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
40.2% (87)
+4.2%
On power play, Stastny has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stastny is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Stastny shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
Stastny
Stamkos
Home
58.3% (276)
55.5% (499)
Away
56.7% (210)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Stastny
Stamkos
P1
63.7%
50.7%
P2
57.3%
53.8%
P3
50.4%
55.9%
Final 5 min
56.0%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 3 | 10:41 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 10:57 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |