Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 58.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.4% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 63.3%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 67.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 68.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Stastny
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Stastny
Stamkos
Last 5: Stastny 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Stastny
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stastny
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (370)
49.3% (789)
+9.9%
Power Play
40.9% (44)
56.9% (181)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (58)
54.1% (98)
-2.4%
On power play, Stamkos has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stastny is 58.6% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Stastny shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
Stastny
Stamkos
Home
57.7% (215)
52.0% (512)
Away
55.6% (257)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Stastny
Stamkos
P1
57.7%
42.1%
P2
54.2%
56.4%
P3
57.7%
53.7%
OT
60.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
57.5%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 00:34 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 05:19 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 10:20 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 09:16 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |