Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 62.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.6% vs Stamkos 50.0% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 77.3%
Defensive zone
Stastny 80.2%
Neutral zone
Stastny 86.3%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 78.6%
78.6%
21.4%
Stastny
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Stastny
Stamkos
Last 7: Stastny 6-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
1
Stastny
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
0
Stastny
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (967)
49.9% (771)
+6.6%
Power Play
58.4% (125)
55.4% (74)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (128)
45.1% (82)
+5.7%
On even strength, Stastny has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stastny is 62.2% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Stastny shoots left. Stamkos is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (653).
Home / Away
Stastny
Stamkos
Home
56.8% (590)
50.7% (487)
Away
55.4% (630)
49.1% (440)
By Period
Stastny
Stamkos
P1
59.7%
46.1%
P2
54.8%
52.0%
P3
53.8%
51.1%
OT
60.0%
54.5%
Final 5 min
55.6%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2016 | 3 | 06:01 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 3 | 05:56 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 3 | 03:21 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 2 | 19:23 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 2 | 12:44 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 2 | 06:46 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 14, 2016 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |