Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stastny wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 54.6% vs Stamkos 52.0% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 51.3%
Defensive zone
Stastny 62.3%
Neutral zone
Stastny 74.3%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 64.3%
64.3%
35.7%
Stastny
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Stastny
Stamkos
Last 10: Stastny 7-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stastny
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
4
0
Stastny
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Stastny
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (1,130)
51.4% (725)
+3.4%
Power Play
59.1% (235)
53.7% (123)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (150)
61.4% (44)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stastny is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (568).
Stastny shoots left. Stamkos is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (608).
Home / Away
Stastny
Stamkos
Home
55.5% (803)
53.3% (426)
Away
54.2% (712)
51.3% (466)
By Period
Stastny
Stamkos
P1
57.4%
56.6%
P2
52.5%
48.2%
P3
54.3%
52.7%
OT
69.6%
42.9%
Final 5 min
52.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2017 | 3 | 18:27 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 12, 2017 | 2 | 15:34 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 12, 2017 | 2 | 12:16 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 12, 2017 | 1 | 14:06 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 18:30 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 02:51 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 19:45 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 09:10 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 07:00 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |