Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stastny wins 58.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 54.2% vs Stamkos 52.8% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 58.9%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 55.4%
Neutral zone
Stastny 56.0%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Stastny
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Stastny
Stamkos
Last 6: Stastny 4-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
1
Stastny
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stastny
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (657)
52.9% (735)
-0.1%
Power Play
61.0% (118)
53.4% (73)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
61.1% (72)
53.8% (145)
+7.3%
On power play, Stastny has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Stastny shoots left. Stamkos is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (686).
Home / Away
Stastny
Stamkos
Home
53.0% (464)
54.1% (481)
Away
56.7% (383)
52.1% (472)
By Period
Stastny
Stamkos
P1
47.9%
50.2%
P2
59.6%
53.4%
P3
54.9%
55.8%
OT
55.6%
36.4%
Final 5 min
57.7%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2019 | OT | 02:50 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 5, 2019 | OT | 02:38 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 3 | 18:18 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 15:03 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 11:35 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 1 | 18:44 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |