Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.8% vs 54.3%). Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Stastny wins 57.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 54.4% vs Stamkos 53.8% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 53.2%
Defensive zone
Stastny 51.8%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 51.2%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Stastny
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Stastny
Stamkos
Last 10: Stastny 8-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
5
1
Stastny
Stamkos
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Stastny
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
0
Stastny
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (859)
54.1% (460)
-0.5%
Power Play
59.9% (202)
64.2% (106)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (78)
45.3% (106)
+9.8%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stastny is 57.0% vs right-shot opponents (412).
Stastny shoots left. Stamkos is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
Stastny
Stamkos
Home
56.9% (596)
58.2% (328)
Away
52.5% (543)
50.6% (344)
By Period
Stastny
Stamkos
P1
53.9%
57.5%
P2
56.2%
53.1%
P3
54.4%
52.7%
OT
53.8%
60.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 11:58 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 13:13 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 01:26 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 15:16 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 03:06 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 2 | 16:04 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |