Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.4% vs Hertl 51.4% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 53.6%
Defensive zone
Stastny 52.9%
Neutral zone
Stastny 65.6%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Stastny
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Stastny
Hertl
Last 7: Stastny 4-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
1
Stastny
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Stastny
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
1
Stastny
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (1,004)
50.4% (367)
+5.0%
Power Play
59.0% (210)
64.6% (48)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
54.1% (196)
49.2% (59)
+4.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stastny is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Stastny shoots left. Hertl is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
Stastny
Hertl
Home
56.5% (717)
50.9% (220)
Away
55.0% (693)
52.4% (254)
By Period
Stastny
Hertl
P1
56.7%
52.7%
P2
57.7%
52.8%
P3
52.1%
49.7%
OT
100.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
59.1%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 07:11 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 01:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 17:45 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 15:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 09:17 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |