Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Stastny wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.4% vs Hertl 52.3% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 51.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 61.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Stastny
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Stastny
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
0
Stastny
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Stastny
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (370)
51.6% (1,084)
+7.6%
Power Play
40.9% (44)
61.0% (246)
-20.1%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (58)
44.1% (136)
+7.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stastny is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Stastny shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Stastny
Hertl
Home
57.7% (215)
55.2% (696)
Away
55.6% (257)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Stastny
Hertl
P1
57.7%
55.4%
P2
54.2%
54.8%
P3
57.7%
48.9%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.5%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 12:37 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 08:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |