Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.8% vs 54.8%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 54.4% vs Hertl 54.3% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 52.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 55.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 50.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Stastny
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stastny
Hertl
Last 5: Stastny 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Stastny
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
0
Stastny
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (859)
54.7% (570)
-1.1%
Power Play
59.9% (202)
55.2% (143)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (78)
54.5% (77)
+0.6%
On power play, Stastny has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stastny is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (727).
Stastny shoots left. Hertl is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Stastny
Hertl
Home
56.9% (596)
56.2% (379)
Away
52.5% (543)
53.5% (411)
By Period
Stastny
Hertl
P1
53.9%
53.4%
P2
56.2%
52.7%
P3
54.4%
57.6%
OT
53.8%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.8%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2019 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 2 | 18:12 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 2, 2019 | 2 | 10:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 2, 2019 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |