Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Stastny wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 53.8% vs Johnson 48.3% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 91.1%
Defensive zone
Stastny 82.7%
Neutral zone
Stastny 82.7%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
Stastny
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Stastny
Johnson
Last 9: Stastny 7-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
0
Stastny
Johnson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
2
Stastny
Johnson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
0
Stastny
Johnson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (995)
48.7% (941)
+4.5%
Power Play
57.6% (158)
49.6% (133)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
61.4% (57)
44.8% (201)
+16.6%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Stastny is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (472).
Stastny shoots left. Johnson is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (862).
Home / Away
Stastny
Johnson
Home
55.1% (586)
50.5% (588)
Away
53.2% (624)
46.1% (687)
By Period
Stastny
Johnson
P1
54.7%
49.4%
P2
53.1%
47.3%
P3
54.2%
48.1%
OT
60.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
50.3%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.1%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 16:05 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 2 | 15:21 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 2 | 08:30 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 14:14 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 11:33 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 08:42 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 25, 2014 | 2 | 01:18 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |