Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stastny wins 57.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 54.4% vs Johnson 49.2% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 85.8%
Defensive zone
Stastny 78.4%
Neutral zone
Stastny 78.4%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 79.9%
79.9%
20.1%
Stastny
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Stastny
Johnson
Last 10: Stastny 7-3 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stastny
Johnson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
4
1
Stastny
Johnson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
1
Stastny
Johnson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (859)
47.2% (286)
+6.4%
Power Play
59.9% (202)
61.8% (55)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (78)
33.3% (12)
+21.8%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Stastny is 57.0% vs right-shot opponents (412).
Stastny shoots left. Johnson is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (263).
Home / Away
Stastny
Johnson
Home
56.9% (596)
55.0% (151)
Away
52.5% (543)
44.6% (202)
By Period
Stastny
Johnson
P1
53.9%
42.3%
P2
56.2%
56.2%
P3
54.4%
47.3%
OT
53.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.8%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 17:10 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 12:37 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 11:13 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 06:07 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 1 | 09:17 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 1 | 07:02 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 3 | 17:33 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 2 | 17:55 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 1 | 17:36 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |