Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Trocheck on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stastny wins 58.6% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.4% vs Trocheck 54.3% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 52.1%
Defensive zone
Trocheck 63.8%
Neutral zone
Stastny 52.7%
Result
Vincent Trocheck favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Stastny
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Stastny
Trocheck
Last 8: Stastny 2-6 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
0
Stastny
Trocheck
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
5
Stastny
Trocheck
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
1
Stastny
Trocheck
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (370)
54.3% (955)
+4.9%
Power Play
40.9% (44)
64.6% (96)
-23.7%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (58)
51.0% (194)
+0.7%
On power play, Trocheck has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Stastny is 58.6% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Stastny shoots left. Trocheck is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (904).
Home / Away
Stastny
Trocheck
Home
57.7% (215)
58.3% (604)
Away
55.6% (257)
51.2% (641)
By Period
Stastny
Trocheck
P1
57.7%
53.9%
P2
54.2%
55.7%
P3
57.7%
54.3%
OT
60.0%
54.5%
Final 5 min
57.5%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 16:59 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 11:54 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 11:50 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 06:18 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 03:55 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 07:03 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 05:15 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 02:49 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |