Evan Rodrigues vs Pavel Buchnevich
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Evan Rodrigues holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.3% vs Buchnevich 42.1% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 56.4%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 85.8%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 78.7%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Last 6: Rodrigues 4-2 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
1
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
1
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (637)
37.7% (154)
+10.2%
Power Play
47.9% (71)
42.9% (14)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (67)
30.0% (10)
+7.3%
On even strength, Rodrigues has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Rodrigues is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Rodrigues shoots right. Buchnevich is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (71).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Home
48.3% (429)
37.4% (91)
Away
45.4% (346)
37.9% (87)
By Period
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
P1
48.3%
38.9%
P2
46.9%
31.5%
P3
45.6%
42.0%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 16:46 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:41 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 04:46 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |