Scouting Report
Shane Wright holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Buchnevich wins 42.3% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 42.1% vs Wright 41.4% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 50.2%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 57.7%
Neutral zone
Wright 55.6%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Buchnevich
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Buchnevich
Wright
Last 5: Buchnevich 1-4 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
2
Buchnevich
Wright
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Buchnevich
Wright
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wright
0
1
Buchnevich
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
37.7% (154)
39.5% (453)
-1.8%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
42.4% (59)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
0.0% (1)
+30.0%
On penalty kill, Buchnevich has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Buchnevich is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (71).
Buchnevich shoots left. Wright is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Wright
Home
37.4% (91)
39.5% (286)
Away
37.9% (87)
40.1% (227)
By Period
Buchnevich
Wright
P1
38.9%
39.9%
P2
31.5%
37.1%
P3
42.0%
42.9%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
33.3%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.6%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 3 | 15:01 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 3 | 01:33 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 18:06 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 01:40 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 16:26 | Offensive | Shane Wright |