Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs Zacha 52.8% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 85.9%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 81.0%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 81.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 84.3%
84.3%
15.7%
Carlsson
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Carlsson
Zacha
Last 8: Carlsson 1-7 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
5
Carlsson
Zacha
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Carlsson
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
54.1% (534)
-12.3%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
56.0% (109)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
44.8% (96)
-6.1%
On power play, Zacha has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Carlsson is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Carlsson shoots left. Zacha is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Zacha
Home
44.5% (362)
53.4% (406)
Away
38.3% (368)
52.9% (333)
By Period
Carlsson
Zacha
P1
46.3%
56.8%
P2
35.1%
53.6%
P3
43.9%
49.2%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 04:13 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:49 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:57 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:01 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 14:36 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |