Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 49.1% vs Wright 43.3% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 62.5%
Defensive zone
Wright 64.7%
Neutral zone
Wright 64.0%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Zacha
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Zacha
Wright
Last 6: Zacha 2-4 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zacha
Wright
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zacha
Wright
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wright
0
2
Zacha
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (5,102)
42.6% (1,318)
+6.3%
Power Play
55.6% (804)
45.8% (131)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (555)
33.3% (6)
+8.9%
On power play, Zacha has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,539).
Zacha shoots left. Wright is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,072).
Home / Away
Zacha
Wright
Home
49.7% (3,353)
44.2% (746)
Away
48.5% (3,108)
41.5% (709)
By Period
Zacha
Wright
P1
49.9%
44.4%
P2
49.2%
40.7%
P3
48.1%
44.0%
OT
53.1%
20.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 11:31 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:40 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 08:46 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 04:44 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 11:22 | Neutral | Shane Wright |