Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Zacha wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 54.4% vs Seguin 55.4% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 67.8%
Defensive zone
Seguin 58.1%
Neutral zone
Seguin 54.1%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Zacha
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Zacha
Seguin
Last 8: Zacha 4-4 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
1
Zacha
Seguin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
3
Zacha
Seguin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
0
Zacha
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (787)
56.9% (478)
-3.0%
Power Play
63.2% (193)
57.4% (54)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (88)
51.3% (76)
-7.0%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Zacha is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Zacha shoots left. Seguin is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (473).
Home / Away
Zacha
Seguin
Home
56.7% (538)
57.4% (317)
Away
52.8% (530)
55.0% (291)
By Period
Zacha
Seguin
P1
52.6%
50.3%
P2
54.8%
60.4%
P3
56.8%
58.0%
OT
59.1%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024 | OT | 03:10 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 08:19 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 19:48 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 3 | 15:15 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 14:59 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 17:14 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |