Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Krebs shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Krebs 45.9% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 80.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 72.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 70.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
Stepan
Krebs
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Stepan
Krebs
Last 8: Stepan 5-3 Krebs
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Krebs
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Krebs
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
2
Stepan
Krebs
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Krebs
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
45.5% (501)
+9.8%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
50.0% (20)
-50.0%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
37.1% (35)
+13.7%
On power play, Krebs has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Krebs shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Krebs is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (205).
Home / Away
Stepan
Krebs
Home
57.7% (213)
43.9% (285)
Away
50.7% (209)
46.5% (271)
By Period
Stepan
Krebs
P1
56.3%
45.4%
P2
48.9%
50.9%
P3
57.1%
39.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Krebs
48.0%▲
45.0%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 03:00 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 1, 2023 | 1 | 02:50 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 1, 2023 | 1 | 02:35 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 3 | 19:23 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 3 | 17:46 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 3 | 09:22 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 1 | 11:34 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Nov 4, 2022 | 1 | 08:07 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |