Scouting Report
Steven Lorentz holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lorentz on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Gardner wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gardner 46.5% vs Lorentz 50.9% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gardner 68.4%
Defensive zone
Gardner 65.3%
Neutral zone
Gardner 71.5%
Result
Rhett Gardner favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Gardner
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Gardner
Lorentz
Last 5: Gardner 0-5 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
4
Gardner
Lorentz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Gardner
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gardner
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (100)
51.7% (292)
-8.7%
On even strength, Lorentz has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Gardner is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (65).
Gardner shoots left. Lorentz is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (203).
Home / Away
Gardner
Lorentz
Home
35.5% (31)
52.3% (155)
Away
46.4% (69)
50.0% (154)
By Period
Gardner
Lorentz
P1
40.0%
59.2%
P2
48.5%
50.9%
P3
40.5%
43.2%
Final 5 min
50.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gardner
50.0%▲
45.2%
43.0%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2021 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 15:02 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 12:27 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 07:19 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |