Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Greig wins 57.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 50.6% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 88.8%
Defensive zone
Greig 69.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 73.1%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Greig
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Greig
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
0
Greig
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (336)
56.1% (342)
-4.6%
Power Play
66.7% (24)
53.3% (92)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (81)
62.5% (8)
-19.3%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Greig is 57.8% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Greig shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Greig
Stamkos
Home
50.2% (247)
53.4% (208)
Away
51.5% (194)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Greig
Stamkos
P1
46.9%
55.6%
P2
58.8%
52.8%
P3
48.3%
59.1%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
55.2%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 06:42 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |