Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Greig wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 48.8% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 83.0%
Defensive zone
Greig 52.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 67.0%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Greig
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Greig
Stamkos
Last 9: Greig 6-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Greig
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
6
1
Greig
Stamkos
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (1,133)
50.4% (9,799)
-1.9%
Power Play
56.8% (74)
55.1% (1,725)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (172)
49.7% (825)
-3.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Greig is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (634).
Greig shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Greig
Stamkos
Home
49.8% (681)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
47.7% (698)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Greig
Stamkos
P1
46.3%
49.1%
P2
51.2%
52.7%
P3
48.8%
50.9%
OT
28.6%
54.3%
Final 5 min
53.5%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 06:42 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:20 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 13:37 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 02:28 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 19:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |