Scouting Report
Riley Sheahan holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Sheahan 50.7% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.3%
Defensive zone
Sheahan 76.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.7%
Result
Riley Sheahan favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Nelson
Sheahan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Sheahan
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Sheahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Sheahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sheahan
1
3
Nelson
Sheahan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Sheahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sheahan
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (586)
52.8% (381)
-4.3%
Power Play
51.9% (81)
100.0% (7)
-48.1%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
41.7% (115)
+15.8%
On power play, Sheahan has a +48.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sheahan shoots left. Nelson is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (350).
Nelson shoots left. Sheahan is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sheahan
Home
55.0% (362)
51.7% (300)
Away
43.5% (345)
49.8% (203)
By Period
Nelson
Sheahan
P1
49.3%
56.7%
P2
53.6%
52.3%
P3
46.0%
45.7%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Sheahan
52.0%▲
49.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2021 | 2 | 14:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | Riley Sheahan |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 15:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| May 4, 2021 | 1 | 13:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 18:10 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 15:44 | Defensive | Riley Sheahan |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 14:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 2 | 07:16 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 1 | 19:34 | Defensive | Riley Sheahan |