Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thomas wins 57.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 52.9% vs Johnston 50.1% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 64.3%
Defensive zone
Johnston 59.6%
Neutral zone
Johnston 50.9%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Thomas
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Thomas
Johnston
Last 6: Thomas 3-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Thomas
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
0
Thomas
Johnston
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Thomas
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (1,166)
50.7% (552)
+2.5%
Power Play
56.9% (262)
61.5% (13)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (221)
43.5% (69)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Thomas is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Thomas shoots right. Johnston is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Thomas
Johnston
Home
51.6% (830)
50.3% (342)
Away
54.7% (819)
50.0% (292)
By Period
Thomas
Johnston
P1
52.7%
54.4%
P2
55.6%
47.2%
P3
50.6%
49.4%
OT
61.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
53.1%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | OT | 00:12 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 05:11 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 14:00 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 19:42 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 19:16 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |